i think it was lavender, they wrote the note to throw people off, she still gave it to violet anyway and this is why she was acting weird. all this was put in place so we would not suspect her... the marks on smile were because he was an accomplace, while he set up the trap, lavender would have an alibi. then she will set the trap and all that is left is to smile to go check to see if the plan worked...
not sure the order but top five are eraser, woody, spongy, coiny and pin. (i will come 6th). 5th- spongey, will be seen as a threat and sombody will proberly use a token on them. 4th- pin, people will be mad for getting spongy out. 3rd- coiny, not as strong asa the other two. 2nd- woody, i can see woody loseing in the final. 1st- eraser